The Journey Of Athletes Betting On Themselves: Successes And Pitfalls

We love seeing athletes bet on themselves. When an athlete bets on himself or herself, they are typically opting out of a "bird in the hand" smaller deal today in favor of testing their full value as a free agent in the future. A lot can go wrong. If the athlete gets hurt before becoming a free agent, they likely would get nothing, or a whole lot less.

As an example of betting on yourself backfiring, take NBA player Dennis Schroder. Schroder turned down an $84 million contract from the Lakers. His performance subsequently tanked—without him even incurring an injury! Schroder ended up signing for the NBA taxpayer exception salary of $5.9 million.

When it goes right, though… the rewards can be very sweet. Just ask NFL quarterback Kirk Cousins. The Atlanta Falcons just agreed to sign Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract. Landing this one contract alone should be nothing short of astonishing for a guy like Kirk Cousins. When he entered the league back in 2012, it was as a backup quarterback to Robert Griffin III. Most analysts predicted Cousins would have a less-than-notable, under-the-radar career traversing the league as a journeyman backup QB. Instead, when this latest Falcons deal is up, Kirk will be sitting on $411.6 million in career earnings. And it's all because he keeps betting on himself over and over… and winning.

Let’s jump to 2012, Cousins’ first year in the league. Washington drafted him in the fourth round. Three rounds earlier, the team had selected Robert Griffin III with the second overall pick. Kirk’s rookie contract with the Skins was a 4-year, $2.57 million deal that came with a $400,000 signing bonus. After subtracting his signing bonus, Kirk was earning an average annual salary of $543,000. By comparison, Robert Griffin III’s rookie contract was a $21 million deal that came with a $14 million signing bonus.

Griffin was supposed to be the franchise’s future. Unfortunately, after a gnarly knee injury his rookie season—and subsequent poor handling of his recovery—Washington turned to Cousins as its quarterback. He had his best season to date in 2015, leading the league in completion percentage as Washington finished with a 9-7 record and reached the playoffs.

At this point, Cousins was coming off his rookie contract, and Washington had a choice:

• Let him become a free agent.
• Stick him with the franchise tag.

The Redskins went with the franchise tag option. That decision was expensive for the team. League rules required the Redskins to pay Kirk Cousins a one-year salary of $22 million. After that season was over, the Redskins were faced once again with the same options, and once again, they went with the franchise tag. This time around, league rules forced the team to pay Kirk $24 million. In other words, Kirk made $46 million in two seasons, roughly 20 times what he earned on his entire rookie contract.

The Redskins did not franchise tag him a third season. At this point, they just couldn’t stomach the cost. League rules on a third franchise tag would have required the Redskins to give Kirk a 44% raise to $34.56 million. This juncture is the first time Kirk opted to bet on himself over a bird in the hand.

Immediately after becoming an unrestricted free agent, Kirk was offered a three-year $60 million contract from the New York Jets. He declined.

After a month of sweating and presumably wondering if he had made the right choice, Kirk’s bet paid off. In March 2018, Kirk signed a three-year, $84 million contract with the Minnesota Vikings. The deal made him the highest-paid quarterback in the league. But that’s not all. Kirk’s Vikings contract was totally unprecedented for the NFL. Unlike the NBA and MLB, where all contracts are 100% fully guaranteed by default, NFL contracts can be entirely un-guaranteed. Or, more typically, just a little bit will be guaranteed. Kirk Cousins’ $84 million deal was 100% FULLY GUARANTEED.

Cousins spent six seasons with the Vikings. After that initial contract expired, Cousins once again signed smaller deals. In 2020, he signed a two-year $66 million deal (that came with a $30 million signing bonus). He played this most recent season on a one-year, $35 million contract. Both of those deals helped him avoid the franchise tag while still giving him a hefty salary.

Between 2012, when he was drafted, and the conclusion of his most recent (and, as it would turn out, final) contract with the Vikings, Kirk Cousins had earned $230 million in NFL salary. Not bad for someone who was supposed to be an under-the-radar career backup!

Unfortunately, just eight games into this past season, Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles. He might not have known it at the time, but his run with the Vikings was done. He had a stronger supporting core around him than in Washington and finished with a better, yet unspectacular, 50-37-1 record and one playoff win in three games. The only time Cousins led the league in something was in lost fumbles during the 2018 season.

And once again, Kirk found himself in the position to either accept a quick deal or bet on himself. And once again, Kirk chose to… bet on himself.

As it turns out, several teams have found themselves in need of a solid quarterback this offseason. Teams at the top of the draft, like the Chicago Bears or New England Patriots, will look to find talent from the college ranks. But there are also some teams, like the Atlanta Falcons, who are low on the draft list but are very much in the market for a consistently solid quarterback. And they were willing to pay handsomely to make it happen.

It also doesn’t hurt that this year’s salary cap is the highest it’s ever been. The Falcons had that money to spend, and Kirk Cousins just so happened to be exactly what they needed. That is why Kirk Cousins—a 35-year-old, consistently adequate quarterback—just signed a four-year $180 million contract.

Kirk will be 39 by the time this deal is done. His career earnings at the end of this deal will be $411 million. That will likely rank him in the top three of all-time NFL earners, way ahead of current and future Hall of Famers Peyton Manning (career earnings: $248 million), Drew Brees (career earnings: $270 million), and Tom Brady (career earnings: $330 million). Not bad for a guy who was drafted to be a backup!